What Does the Recession Imply for UK Shopper Spending?

The UK slipped right into a technical recession within the remaining quarter of 2023 in accordance with new information from the Workplace of Nationwide Statistics (ONS). The autumn in financial output was steeper than most economists anticipated, with the financial system barely rising over the course of final yr.

Regardless of the slowing financial system, client confidence is up on mid-2023 ranges. Rising actual wages is one issue behind this resilience. However one other is that buyers have honed their survival expertise after half a decade of fixed upheaval. The autumn in GDP is a side-issue in comparison with the affect of COVID-19 and the price of residing disaster. And much like the earnings squeeze that adopted the monetary disaster, savvy purchasing doesn’t imply that individuals are slicing again throughout the board. From meals to magnificence to journey, many are nonetheless ready to commerce up for the best product.

Whereas economists and customers don’t at all times agree with one another, there’s one space the place there may be consensus: the UK’s financial prospects. Most economists count on development to stagnate in 2024, rising by just a few share factors. Shoppers are solely marginally extra optimistic. Solely 11% count on the financial system to develop considerably, in comparison with 38% who assume it’ll keep about the identical.

The time period ‘recession’ nonetheless has energy. However for most individuals, it’s the symbolism that issues, not the measure itself. In the true world, a 0.3% decline isn’t going to really feel any completely different than a 0.3% enhance.

What actually issues is how a lot cash you’ve received left in your checking account on the finish of the month. And right here, falling actual wages signifies that for many individuals it has felt as if we fell into recession for much longer than six months in the past. Crucially, this measure has circled during the last six months. Ever since mid-2023, common wages have been edging forward of the speed of inflation, that means that individuals lastly have a bit bit extra slack of their finances.

Manufacturers must concentrate on points straight impacting their clients to know the patron financial system.

Regardless of the autumn in nationwide financial exercise over the second half of 2023, 28% of customers say that their funds are wholesome, and 44% that they’re at the least doing OK. This headline information hides important variation throughout completely different demographic teams, in fact: 21% of people that have a family earnings of lower than £15,500 are both struggling or are already in monetary bother, in comparison with simply 2% of individuals incomes at the least £50,000.

Wanting on the longer-term pattern in monetary wellbeing, the disconnect between GPD and client sentiment turns into much more clear. Our January information did present a fall in sentiment, however we noticed an identical post-Christmas dip in 2021 and 2022. The medium-term pattern, although, is broadly optimistic, and sentiment ended 2023 larger than at any level since mid-2022.

Though sentiment is holding up nicely, the price of residing disaster remains to be having a major affect on client spending. The massive majority of customers are nonetheless altering their behaviour in response to rising costs: 34% are purchasing extra at low-cost retailers, whereas 32% are shifting to non-public label, and 43% are being extra cautious about spending on luxuries.

The modifications are much more pronounced among the many individuals who have been hardest-hit by the disaster: 67% of people who find themselves struggling to make ends meet say that they’re lowering vitality use at residence, for instance.

Economists speak about ‘the paradox of thrift’: the tendency for customers to chop spending simply because the financial system wants a lift. Mintel’s information exhibits that buyers are cautious. Half (50%) of individuals added to their financial savings within the final three months, whereas spending on big-ticket classes like home home equipment and vehicles remains to be subdued.

However responses additionally affirm that there’s room for discretionary spend, whether or not that’s new garments, a meal out, or a visit overseas.

Rising costs have meant that buyers have had little choice however to extend their whole spending, however they’re trying to minimise the affect by slicing again on luxuries, and switching to non-public label or lower-cost retailers.

The information of a technical recession is unlikely to materially shift client behaviour within the retail sector. As within the post-financial disaster years, savvy purchasing is now engrained, and can take years to unwind. Many individuals had already been performing as if the UK financial system was in a shallow recession, and within the first half of 2024 there may be little to recommend a fabric shift in retail spending intention, significantly in big-ticket classes.

Christmas 2023 hints at how polarised any enchancment in retail spending will likely be in 2024. Common spending on gifting fell 5% year-on-year, and reward spending for mid-income households (£25k-£49.9k), dipped by 14%. Any enhance in confidence forward of Christmas was counterbalanced by continued concern round rates of interest and a normal air of warning.

Nonetheless, excessive earnings consumers grew spend (+11% y-o-y), and we noticed extra buying in excessive ticket classes like electricals, jewelry and watches.

The hope is additional easing of inflation and continued wage development will permit funds further time to recuperate, and that within the second half of the yr we might even see a broader vary of customers’ act in the best way we noticed a proportion of excessive earners do throughout Christmas 2023, upping discretionary spend and releasing the purse strings a bit.

Food and drinks purchasing habits have already modified considerably throughout 2022 and 2023.

Excessive inflation within the class, its massive share in family budgets and the flexibility to make quick modifications to purchasing habits have already made food and drinks a first-rate candidate for behavioural modifications, so the information of a technical recession is unlikely to carry additional disruption.

The modifications in behaviour have been most evident in pricier segments like meat substitutes and chilled prepared meals, and discretionary gadgets like desserts, the place quantity gross sales fell in 2023. 

The enhance to own-label market share in most classes speaks to the identical pattern. Nonetheless, individuals nonetheless wish to deal with themselves. In truth, 49% of adults purchased premium alcoholic drinks within the 12 months to October 2023, together with 42% of these describing their funds as tight/struggling.

This continues to create alternatives for premium merchandise. Amongst current examples, premium manufacturers Charlie Bigham’s and Wasabi outperformed the chilled prepared meals phase in 2022/23, whereas manufacturers on the larger finish of mass-market like San Miguel and Corona have been amongst star performers in lager.

The message throughout journey, leisure and foodservice continues to be that buyers are nonetheless eager to splash out on these experiences, however that many are having to prioritise. Persons are nonetheless reserving holidays and consuming out, however they’re doing this stuff much less usually than prior to now.

The upside is that once they do this stuff they’re prepared to spend greater than ever earlier than as a way to guarantee they’ve a top quality expertise.

As an illustration the typical worth of each home and abroad holidays reached a report excessive in 2023 – pushed partly by rising costs (and customers’ willingness to pay extra), but additionally by a altering combine as customers prioritise their principal vacation over brief, top-up breaks.

We’re anticipating this pattern to proceed in 2024 with the worth of the abroad vacation market set to develop by 7.5% to achieve £52 billion.

In keeping with earlier recessions, spending throughout most magnificence and private care classes stays buoyant, as customers stay prepared to spend money on their look, and switch to those merchandise to elevate their spirits.

That is true even on the premium finish of the market. In 2023, Mintel estimates worth gross sales of status magnificence merchandise elevated 6.4%. Innovation attracted new customers to the sector, and prevented current customers from utterly abandoning it.

Nonetheless, savvy purchasing is having an affect even on this recession resistant sector. Two-thirds  (66%) of status magnificence customers mentioned that the price of residing had led them to cut back the variety of merchandise they purchase. Whereas individuals aren’t abandoning the class, they’re changing into extra selective, and lots of will doubtless be choosing lower-priced status manufacturers.

To seek out out extra concerning the prospects for manufacturers, client and the UK financial outlook please click on right here for a extra detailed evaluation by Mintel’s specialists.