PPI collapsing, practically 60% of CPI parts in deflation, retail gross sales trending detrimental. Revenue Recession simply getting began with 34 firms reporting -6.7% thus far… – Funding Watch
Non existent credibility trigger the Fed is once more out of synch with the market and the info. Yields dropping as a brand new Fed coverage error of staying too excessive too lengthy would kill any smooth touchdown narrative. Powell’s obtained some explaining to do. pic.twitter.com/GVsDvjIqab
The Empire State survey laid one other egg, coming in at 32.9 for January. That is akin to the previous readings from the International Monetary Disaster.
With the S&P 500 buying and selling at 4,000, the Road anticipates that its earnings will rise from $200 in 2022 to $225 in 2023.
If Empire new orders index is any indication of the place ISM new orders will come on Feb. 1st, and there actually seems to be a correlation, it’ll be ugly. -31.1 is the third worst month-to-month quantity because the survey was created in 2001. pic.twitter.com/2T15Bq0CYR
The 10Y is consolidating earlier than its closing transfer upward to five%. This would be the closing nail within the coffin for this market. I anticipate the S&P 500 to plunge to 2000, the Russell 2000 to drop to 1000, and the Nasdaq 100 to fall to 6500.
Former Secretary of Labor Robert Reich believes the Federal Reserve’s price hikes are usually not working and mentioned the central financial institution ought to cease believing it will possibly simply cease profit-price inflation by mountaineering rates of interest.
Mushy touchdown for the US economic system? It’s trying much less and fewer seemingly. The bond market (10-year Treasury yield) simply shed -14.1 foundation factors. As I at all times instructed my investments college students, any 10 foundation level shift within the 10-year Treasury yield is critical.
Let’s begin wit the US enterprise leaders survey of present situations. It simply crashed to -21.4
Then we’ve got US industrial manufacturing, down -0.7% in December. And is up just one.65% year-over-year as M2 Cash development stalls.
